From Joe Trippi's election analysis:
Since the Democratic Leadership Council, with its mantra of "moderate, moderate, moderate," took hold in Washington, the Democratic Party has been in decline at just about every level of government. Forget the Kerry loss. Today the number of Democrats in the House is the lowest it's been since 1928. Democrats are on the brink of becoming a permanent minority party. Can the oldest democratic institution on earth wake from its stupor?
Democrats can't keep ignoring their base. Running to the middle and then asking our base at the end of the campaign to make sure to vote is not a plan. It sure hasn't worked. And to those who say talking to your base doesn't work-Read the Rove 2004 playbook!
This is so completely wrong I can't even begin to describe it. But I'll try.
Here's the short answer: 1. The Democratic party is in decline because we're still losing old conservative Democrats. 2. The "moderate moderate moderate" message has won us our only 2 Presidential elections in the last 30 years. 3. The number of Democrats in the House is low because of redistricting. We screwed it up in 1990, and the NAACP works with the GOP to create 1 majority minority district and 3 surrounding Republican districts. 4. This election was about bases. And ours is obviously smaller.
Now the long explanation:First of all, the Democratic Party's last real electoral majority was during the Johnson Administration. The new left, minorities, and the old conservative Democrats all voted for him in 1964.
Because of the civil rights movement and the Democratic Party's embrace of several controversial social causes, the conservative Democrats would soon leave the party. Meanwhile, liberal northeastern Republicans began to retire or switch parties. That meant that eventually the Republican Party would be made up of moderates and conservatives, and the Democratic Party would be made up of moderates and liberals.
The American electorate is comprised of roughly 20% liberals, 50% moderates, and 30% conservatives. That means that the battle is over moderates (and it already tilts in the Republicans favor). Whichever party seems more moderate will always win elections. Look at history:
1. Reagan beat Mondale like a drum because Mondale was really liberal.
2. Bush Sr. portrayed Dukakis as an out of touch weak-kneed Massachusetts liberal.
3. Bill Clinton won in 1992 because Ross Perot sapped away the moderate votes from George W. Bush.
4. Clinton won again in 1996 by first moving to the right (after the disastrous 1994 midterms) and then portraying Bob Dole as radical cold-hearted conservative.
5. In 2000, both George W. Bush and Al Gore ran as a moderates. A tie.
6. In 2004, John Kerry was successfully portrayed as a liberal on foreign policy issues ("afraid to use the US military without a permission slip from other countries") and cultural issues.
In short, the last 6 elections have been won by the party that convinced the center to vote for them.
We're not losing because we're moving to the center. We're losing because we're not moving to the center! Besides welfare reform, where have the national Democrats moved to the center? I can't think of anything. Can you? Meanwhile, Democrats like Mark Warner manage to win in red states by running as moderates. Hmmmm....
The truth is, both parties fired up their bases this year and we learned that the Republican base is bigger. Does Joe Trippi actually believe that a single member of the Democratic base didn't turn out last year? I guess we could dredge the ghettos for more black people...but will that really help?
We had a historic opportunity this year. Our base was frothing at the mouth. John Kerry could have given a speech where he told Michael Moore to go to hell and they still would have voted for him.
In fact, that's exactly what he should have done. Michael Moore was this year's unrealized Sister Souljah. If John Kerry had given a major speech where he told Michael Moore to shut up (and made a convincing case in the speech that liberals could have at least listened to), then we would have won this election.
Look. At the end of the day, wouldn't you rather have Joe Lieberman than George W. Bush? Democrats need to realize (like they have in Virginia) that this is probably the best they'll ever get. Mark Warner is probably one of the greatest governors Virginia has ever seen. He has successfully convinced the moderate Republicans to work with him on a Democratic agenda (a massive increase in public education funding, more tax fairness, more spending for mental health, more spending on our public colleges).
Mark Warner is the answer, my friends. In 2001, a drunk fan approached me at a UVA football game and noticed my Mark Warner pin. He screamed, "all the way to the White House! Woo!" We can only hope that those touching and poetic words come true.
Rebuttal of criticisms: The most obvious critique of my argument is that by moving to the center and mimicking Republicans, we don't inspire voters with a distinctive choice. For example, let's say you're a moderate and you have your doubts about the war in Iraq. You can either vote for President Bush, who defends it passionately, or the Democrats, who give a mealy mouthed flip floppy criticism. Passion beats mush any day.
It's a good argument, but it's not the one Trippi is espousing. Trippi doesn't think we need to be "bold", he just thinks we need to move to the left. He's reciting the discredited theory that there's an enormous untapped liberal base of non-voters. For him, it's a matter of simple arithmetic. He thinks that the numbers favor Democrats who excite their base. I disagree. Every major study on non-voters has concluded that they mirror the general electorate in their preferences - they're just extremely apathetic. And seriously dumb.
We should embrace any and all bold ideas. Unfortunately, there's nothing "bold" about liberalism. Liberal politicians take their marching orders from labor unions, the AARP, and teachers' unions. All of these groups fight for the maintenance of the status quo. Not exactly exciting stuff...
The really bold ideas are in the center. Welfare reform was a bold idea. The solutions to our transportation problems are in the center. Fiscal responsibility (an idea that propelled Tom Coburn to victory) is in the center. That's where we need to be. It's where neither party dares tread because their interest groups force them towards the left or the right.
And as much as I hate the mantra of "we need less partisanship", I'm starting to believe it. We need coalitions of moderate elected officials to buck their parties and the fringes and get together on legislation. Of course, it won't happen because the moderates are either dead or redistricted out of office. But that's a topic for another day.