More strategy discussion...

The way I understand cultural trends, isn't America moving away from the countrified/southern/redneck loving/traditional/backwoods/Midwestern "values" culture? Aren't we moving towards a Will and Grace/college educated/tolerant/less patriotic culture? Whenever the Republicans decry all things intellectual or they scream about the snobbery or nuanced thought of liberals, they alienate intelligent conservatives (there are plenty out there). At the same time, whenever they abandon traditional conservative bedrock principles like fiscal restraint and foreign policy realism, they alienate more of these thoughtful conservatives. You saw it happen this year when virtually every center-right-leaning pundit endorsed Kerry or refused to endorse Bush.

If the GOP continues on this path, they'll soon be the minority party. You can't run against "condescending intellect" forever, can you?

I might be in the minority here, but I think the Democrats did what they had to do this year. The odds were stacked against them. We were at war. Any time we're at war, there are a certain amount of people who are highly susceptible to patriotic appeals and will respond by supporting the incumbent. We need to stay the course that the Bill Clinton and the DLC laid out. Arianna Huffington often complains that the party lacks bold ideas, but she makes the mistake of thinking that bold ideas are liberal ideas. In fact, the only bold ideas in this party are coming from the DLC.

We can take the tired liberal approach and continue to pander to teachers unions and seniors and refuse to offer any bold ideas on education policy or social security reform. Or we can try out bold DLC ideas like teacher merit pay and social security reform (with some experimentation with partial privatization). The liberals will cringe and whine and cling to the status quo, but that's why we'll feed them a likeable candidate: John Edwards.

Think Republicans are crazy?

Read this:

Friday, Nov. 5, 2004 1:24 p.m. EST
Sen. Specter Ignites Firestorm of Opposition

Note to congressmen: It's not a good idea to try to push around a popular, newly re-elected president, especially one in your own party.

The attempt by Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., to act like the Boss Hogg of the Supreme Court before even snagging the chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee has blown up in his face.

Though Specter quickly tried to undo the damage yesterday, conservatives are already rallying against him.

A few examples:

American Family Association of Pennsylvania has sent letters urging the president, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and members of the Senate Judiciary Committee to deny him the chairmanship.
"Senator Specter's statements are outrageous on the heels of Tuesday's election where the values voter sent a clear message that the moral slide in this nation is their top concern ... where the values voter brought victory to President Bush and sent many pro-family, pro-life Senators and Congressmen to Washington, where the values voter in South Dakota unseated pro-abortion Senator Tom Daschle," said Diane Gramley, president of the organization.

National Federation of Republican Assemblies blasted Specter as "arrogant" and a "pretender to being a Republican." It has established an petition urging Frist and other GOP senators to reject Specter for the post.

Gary Bauer, president of American Values, described Specter's comments as the "height of ingratitude" and said: "They ought to make it absolutely clear that he will not be the next chairman when the new Senate comes in next year."
"It is unacceptable for one liberal Republican from Pennsylvania to thwart the desires of the president of the United States to make our federal courts more conservative and more in tune with the values of the American people," Bauer said.

Pro-life groups plan a "Stop Spector Pro-life Pray-In" on Wednesday in Washington to ask that Specter not be handed the chairmanship.
Marchers will assemble at 12:30 p.m. at 109 2nd St. N.E., near the Supreme Court, and march to the Dirksen Senate office building.

The coalition includes Operation Rescue, Faith and Action, and Christian Defense Coalition.

"Specter's attempt to challenge the right of the president to make judicial appointments is outrageous," said Troy Newman, president of Operation Rescue. "He cannot be allowed to single-handily hold nominees hostage with whom he has a personal ax to grind."

Move to the Left?

It's time for the circular firing squad.
Some are calling for the Democratic party to throw out the DLC. How can we move to the left? We just nominated a liberal. He lost. We nominated Dukakis, and he lost. We nominated Mondale, and he lost. What would the Left have us do, nominate a socialist? Should we run Nader?

The problem is that the electoral map isn't changing and there are few swing states. How are we going to win red states by moving to the left? We're not. Here's what we need:
1. wedge issues- The democrats didn't use them this year.
2. moderation
3. politicians who can actually say "God" without sounding like belabored.

As a relatively moderate Democrat, I don't like what I see in this nation. The Republican Party is poised to push an extreme conservative agenda. Aside from the occasional filibuster, we won't stop them. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party seems poised to move to the far left. I'm worried that the day will come when I can't find it in myself to support either party.

My angry post last night

I'm going to leave it up, despite it's various vulgarities, because I feel strongly that a blog is a place where you express a snap shot of your life and then leave that snap shot unaltered. I was in a rage last night after figuring out that Bush had won (roughly 10:30PM).

I suppose it's not that bad. I do detest the Swift Boat Vets. And I'll spend my life continuing to discredit them. Nothing else moved the polls this year more than the Swift Boat Vets (although the first debate was close). And it was based on categorical lies. I don't recomend violence, although slamming a pie in their face is encouraged.

As for America's youth - I think a draft would be quite helpful to them. Maybe not a military draft, but we need some sort of mandatory civic engagement program. They need to be convinced that it's in their best interest to participate in Democracy.

As for Teresa Heinz Kerry being a "freakish human being"? Some things, true or not, are better left unsaid.

Back to reality

The nation isn't liberal. John Kerry is liberal.

The nation isn't secular. John Kerry and the current Democratic party are completely secular.

The nation isn't a bunch of pacifists. Something close to following statement appeared on Michael Moore's website yesterday: "We're going to push John Kerry until he withdraws every American troop from Iraq." The "America brutally butchers Iraqi women and children and should be spanked" school of thought doesn't resonate in America like it resonates on the Left.

The nation wasn't ready for Lawrence v. Texas and the Massachusetts Supreme Court. Even elderly members of the Democratic Party weren't ready.

The nation doesn't want to see things in grey. They want things presented to them in black and white. Bill Clinton presented himself as "against crime", "against the current welfare system", etc. John Kerry presented himself as "Willing to use the US military, but only if certain circumstances came to be, such as (5 minute ramble). Oh and I'll hunt down the terrorists (etc.) Was Saddam Hussein a threat? Yes and no. Was he enough of a threat to deal with? Yes. Was he enough of a threat to go to war with? No. (etc. etc.)" George W. Bush just said, "I'm gonna kill those bad men. And even if they're the wrong bad men, we'll have killed some bad men." At the end of the day, Saddam Hussein is a bad man. Advantage Bush.

The nation isn't ready for universal healthcare. Until the memory of Hillary Clinton's disasterous plan fades, we'll never get universal health care. How many people without insurance vote? Most are children and the rest are either poor or just above 18 (non-voters). There will be a time when both Republicans and Democrats embrace universal healthcare, but we're not there yet.

The nation doesn't like intellectuals. Plain and simple. They're distrustful of "elites". There's some merit to distrusting elites, I suppose. But in the end, we can't do without them. Is Farmer Jack ever going to be smart enough to write regulatory code? Probably not.

The nation's youth aren't interested in politics. Those who might have turned against Bush didn't get around to it. Maybe they took a few too many bong hits the night before, or maybe they didn't care as much as we were led to believe. Either way, the youth vote hardly changed between 2000 and 2004.

Those are my thoughts right now. I'll have more later.

Meanwhile

I'm reading some of the comments on "Dailykos.com" and they're claiming that Bush stole the election. Please spare this nonsense.

The silver lining

Bush will have to deal with Iraq. That's it. No other silver lining.

Oh wait - the Daily Show will continue to be funny.

How Bush won

Several factors:

1. Young people did not vote. I have 2 friends (who I will not name) who are strong Democratic partisans who didn't vote. They either didn't bother to register or didn't bother to change their registration. This was in Virginia, mind you, but this sort of thing probably happened across the country. I can only hope that Bush invades Iran, starts a new draft, and these people who didn't vote are beheaded by some maniac.

2. The Swift Boat Nazis. These people will go down in history as some of the most disgusting human beings ever to affect an election. If you ever meet an active member of the Swift Boat veterans, spit in their face then kick them in the crotch because they are lying scum bags.

3. John Kerry. He lacked charisma. That's really it. Bill Clinton flip flopped, cheated on his wife, and dodged the draft, but it didn't matter because he had charisma. Kerry has none.

4. Theresa Heinz Kerry. She's a freakish human being.

Youth vote

From Daily Kos:

MSNBC exit poll indicates that the youth did not vote. The 18-29 bracked voted the same this year as in 2000, while 30-44 group was down

Wow.

Bush wins

With 90% reporting in Florida, Kerry is losing by 5%. The early voting won't quite make up that deficit. Bush wins Florida. And that leaves Ohio:

With 49% reporting, Bush is up by 5%. Ohio is counting early votes tonight, so this one is over.

Bush wins - Jesus wins - the bible won't be banned after all.

Early voting

It looks like it won't be counted for a day or two. I'm not sure why we didn't already know this...

Florida election officials should seriously be shot.

We won't know until Thursday. Go to sleep.

My predictions

Here they are (I give my 2 point range):

Minnesota: Kerry +6-8
Wisconsin: Kerry +4-6
Iowa: Kerry +0-2
Michigan: Kerry +6-8
Ohio: Kerry +0-2
Florida: Kerry +1-3
New Mexico: Bush +0-2
Pennsylvania: Kerry +5-7
New Jersey: Kerry +11-13
Hawaii: Kerry +11-13
Colorado: Bush +5-7
Nevada: Bush +2-4
Virginia: Bush +2-4
Arkansas: Bush +4-6
West Virginia: Bush +6-8
Missouri: Bush +3-5
New Hampshire: Kerry +4-6

That's Kerry 306, Bush 232. I'm least comfortable with my projections in New Mexico and Ohio.

As for the popular vote? I'd say somewhere between Bush by .5% and Kerry by 1%.

The 2PM exit polls show Kerry winning by 10%. Ignore them, they have a margin of error over 10%.

The Senate will probably end up 52-47 for the GOP after tonight.

In the House, I think the Democrats will gain 3 seats.