The Senate!!!The Democrats' chances in the Senate look better and better every day. Ben Campbell (Colorado-R) announced today that he
will not seek a 4th term. That throws the seat into the tossup category. It's odd that he waited so long to decide...
Expect Colorado Governor Bill Owens (R) to seek the seat. If he gets the nomination, he'll cruise to a win in November...although...he is separating from his wife right now, and rumor has it that he fathered a bastard child (sorry, I find that phrase amusing when used with Republicans).
Naturally, that could hurt him...
But it could also prompt Gary Hart to enter the race (obviously thinking, "Hey...my adultery problem has been neutralized!"). Gary Hart has become a quasi-national figure and would make this a tough race for Owens.
There's also the possibility that Bill Udall (Colorado congressman) could throw his hat back into the race. He's considered a Democratic heavyweight in the state (I'll take Kos's word on this one...)
Another note on Owens: He's #2 on the GOP Presidential hopeful list in 2008 (#1 being Jeb). Of course, a bastard child could change that significantly.
My apologies to all of the bastard children out there...
Right now (counting Colorado) the Democrats have 1 sure pickup (Illinois), 2 likely pickups (Oklahoma and Alaska) and 2 possible pickups (Colorado and Pennsylvania).
The Republicans have 2 sure pickups (Georgia and South Carolina), 1 likely pickup (North Carolina), and 3 possible pickups (Louisiana, Florida, and South Dakota).
The balance right now is 49-51. So they either need to win the Presidency and tie, or pick up 2 seats. It's going to be hard...
But WAIT!!! The Presidential race will impact the Senate race in two ways:
1. John Kerry will have to give up his seat if he wins the Presidency. The governor of Massachusetts is a Republican and will appoint a Republican to the seat.
2. Whoever Kerry picks as his VP will have to vacate their seat (if they're in the Senate). The only possible Senate VP picks are Evan Bayh (my favorite), Bill Nelson (long shot) and Karl Levin (longer shot). Bayh would be replaced by a Democrat (he's up for reelection this year) but Nelson would be replaced by a Republican. It's worth thinking about.
But WAIT!!! (part 2)
The Massachusetts legislature is currently working on a law that will mandate a quick special election for an open Senate seat (instead of an appointment). That would allow the Democrats to easily retake the seat if Kerry vacates it.