The McCain factor

Read Ryan Lizza's great analysis of John McCain's role in this election.

Immediate Threat video

Just in case this hasn't made it to you in a forwarded email, here's the infamous "Immediate Threat" video that Moveon.org is promoting.

Perhaps I was wrong

Maybe John Kerry's "foreign leaders support me" statement wasn't that harmful.

At very least it was incorrect strategy...

Spain

Over the last few days, I've been wrestling with what last week's events in Spain mean. At first, I was convinced that the election was a victory for Al Qaida. On first glance, it looks like Al Qaida sought to punish a nation for an alliance with the US against Iraq, and it succeeded. But that assumes that the Spaniards voted against Aznar because they were afraid of further Al Qaida attacks, or because they disliked his policies in the war on terror. I think that's incorrect. The last minute swing in the polls occurred because of Aznar's dishonest handling of the attacks, not the attacks themselves. There was a systematic effort by Aznar's government to blame Basque separatists. They were playing politics with a disaster. That's what lost them the election.

Americans loved George W. Bush's leadership after 9-11 because he rose above politics during a crisis. Aznar failed to do so, and was thrown out. The same thing will happen to Bush if he tries to politicize 9-11 during the GOP convention. People won't stand for it.

War in Iraq a success so far?

Throw aside, for the moment, your feelings about the Bush administrations blatant misstatements about WMD, Al Qaida, and their lackluster post war planning, and you'll discover that the situation in Iraq hasn't been as disastrous as many liberals predicted it would be. Sure, the violence might increase again (like it did in November), but right now it appears to be in a lull. At this point, I'm prepared to say that the US military may have neutralized most of the insurgency within Iraq. I could be wrong, of course. The horrible suicide bombings in the holy city of Najaf two weeks ago certainly displayed some organizational prowess on the part of the insurgents. But daily attacks upon coalition forces have diminished sharply. Coalition deaths and casualties have tailed off as well. With the signing of a constitution, the future looks bright for Iraq. I still doubt it will work, but it just might.

Of course, the President SHOULD NOT be let off the hook for his lies.

A disaster for Kerry

This is the type of thing that could derail the Kerry candidacy. It was ENDLESSLY idiotic when Kerry asserted that foreign leaders wanted him elected. I can't even begin to tell you how dumb that was. Now the Bush team is asking Kerry which foreign leaders endorsed him - not in an effort to find out who is on Kerry's side, but rather, in an effort to keep the story in the news.

Bush (or rather his handlers) have 3 strategies during this campaign:

1. Paint Kerry as a liberal
2. Paint Kerry as a flip flopper
3. Paint Kerry as weak on defense. Paint him as a President who would consult allies before defending America.

When Kerry asserted, "foreign leaders want me elected!" he made a case for #3. Certainly foreign leaders want Kerry elected, with the exception of Blair. He's ideologically closer to them than Bush is. But that's not the issue. The issue is the message that Kerry's foolish declaration sends to those who are unsure whether he'd defend America. Right now Bush still enjoys a large lead over Kerry in the "handling of the War on Terror" question in every survey I've seen. This won't help Kerry close that lead, and it may open it up.

Unless Kerry handles this issue perfectly (so far he hasn't), this could be his Waterloo.

Bush's best bud Vladdy wins!

Russia's authoritarian leader, Vladimir Putin, won reelection in a landslide that could modestly be called illegitimate. Putin controls the media and he has jailed opposition leaders.
The Washington Post on Putin:
He has contributed nothing to the spread of democracy in the Middle East or elsewhere but instead has acted as a real force for the erosion of democracy inside Russia. Putin has conducted an inhumane war inside Chechnya, seized control of all of Russia's national television networks, emasculated the Federal Council (Russia's equivalent of the U.S. Senate), assaulted federalism and regional autonomy, arbitrarily used the law to jail or chase away political foes, removed candidates from electoral ballots, harassed and arrested leaders of nongovernmental organizations and weakened Russia's independent political parties. Today's presidential vote, which Putin will win in a landslide, is the least competitive election in Russia's post-Soviet history. The idea therefore of having Russia contribute to a G-8 initiative for democracy promotion in the greater Middle East is absurd. Bush's unqualified embrace of Putin undermines his credibility when speaking about the need for democratization in other countries.