Attack in the south

Here's a big story getting ZERO coverage. 172 hurt?

Dean articles

A mushy profile piece in the Times

and

A scathing critique from William Saletan

Both are probably worth reading. The interesting thing about Dean attacking moderate Democrats (Saletan mentions it) is that half of the Democratic Party is moderate (I'm not talking about swing voters - I'm talking about true moderate Democrats). What's the point in alienating them?

Dean as the anti-Clinton candidate?

It's becoming clear to me that many liberals (and much of the country) no longer hold Bill Clinton in very high esteem. Liberals fume that Clinton sold them out to the Republicans (even though he wasn't in power in 2001 and 2002 when the real selling out occurred). Many stupid moderates (for a lack of a better term...I usually call them low information voters, but let's be honest) have been taken by the overwhelmingly negative Clinton press over the last few years (real stories like the pardon scandal and idiotic accusations like his culpibility regarding 9-11, the supposed moral bankrupcy of our country) and conservatives - well, they're conservatives.

My point? In an anti-Clinton climate, a candidate could conceivably run as the anti-Clinton candidate and get quite a following out of it. Dean seems to be positioning himself as that candidate.

Do I like it? Not one bit. Is it a gutsy on Dean's part? Damn right.

Dean vs Ickes

Take a look at the Mickey Kaus (the insufferable centrist) analysis of the Dean/DLC rift and the implications of campaign finance reform.

Unemployment

I thought it would be interesting to look at which states are suffering high unemployment and compare their voting patterns. Here's what I came up with:

I'll count unemployment of 6% and higher as a high rate.

Republican leaning states with high unemployment:
Alaska - 7.5%
South Carolina - 6.9%
Texas - 6.3%

Competitive states:
Oregon - 7.3%
Michigan - 7.0%
North Carolina - 6.3%
New Mexico - 6.1%
Arkansas - 6.0%

Democratic states/territories:
Washington - 6.8%
Illinois - 6.7%
DC - 6.6%
California - 6.4%
New York - 6.1%

So it looks like Oregon and Michigan will be safely in Democrats' hands next year. Arkansas is historically poor, but New Mexico may tilt towards the Democrats. Here are some battleground states that are doing relatively decent economically:

Iowa - 4.2%
New Hampshire - 4.3%
Nevada - 4.5%
Florida - 4.7%

Make what you will of these numbers.

Oops.

Check out this google search.

Worth reading today

Here's a quote from Robert Novak:

The Bush administration has spent a lot of time saying how well things have gone in Iraq, contending the happy truth has been obscured by negative news media coverage. This is privately described by officials as the ''smoke and mirrors'' technique. Nobody has recognized that more clearly than Jerry Bremer. He was not summoned to Washington when he volunteered for a brief visit Nov. 11. He wanted to tell the president personally just how bad things really were in Iraq and, in fact, got a rare one-on-one meeting with Bush.

The inadequate, unrealistic planning for the occupation of Iraq will never be admitted publicly, but it is common knowledge at high levels of the administration. The notion that Iraqi exiles could step in to run the country, pressed on Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld by his civilian advisory board, was a chimera.


And read this Washington Post article about a growing bribery scandal.

Does it get any dumber?

Alaskans are fearing for their lives, at least according to the media. Is there any limit to the lengths that this administration will go to in order to scare up votes?

A look ahead

Now that Dean is virtually assured the nomination, it's time to start looking ahead at the next Bush administration. I expect Bush will continue to push forward with tax cuts and further erode the federal budget. Another war certainly is not out of the question, especially considering the likelihood of another attack on our soil. I would guess Syria, but North Korea is always a possibility.

Medicare will come and bite the Republicans in 2008, once voters realize how horrible their reform was.

Rove raises political alert level to "HIGH"

I'm not usually taken in by conspiracy theories - but this color coded terrorism system is clearly meant to scare up votes and little else.

Some views from Florida

Well, I'm in Florida. Polk County to be exact (It's just to the east of Tampa). Around here, Democrats are old. And they're naturally concerned about their healthcare. Which candidate appeals to these older Democrats? Howard Dean. I think Gephardt may have won a few converts as well.

Based on mainly anecdotal evidence, I've noticed a disconnect between younger and older Democrats. Amongst the older Democrats, Dean does well throughout the political spectrum. Perhaps its his rhetoric about a "new social contract" that harkens back to the New Deal or perhaps just the Great Society. Maybe it's healthcare. I don't know. I do know that this is good news for Dean's election chances.