Where Kerry's Mary Cheney comments hurt him...

They hurt him amongst swing voters who combine these characteristics:

1. A lack of historical perspective - Since they haven't followed politics for more than 10-15 minutes of their life, they aren't sure whether the GOP or Dems are traditionally homophobic.

2. A generally tolerant attitude towards gays.

So Kerry's comments are seen by these uninformed and politically apathetic swing voters as homophobic (and across the line). And since they don't have any frame of reference as to which campaign is ACTUALLY intolerant, they assume that it's Kerry. This affects their vote (for the next 48 hours until they find another superficial issue to vote on). I'm mainly talking about "soccer mom" swing voters here. I doubt there are many male swing voters out there who are using gay rights as a barometer.

What are the implications of this? Kerry's continuing to lose women.

Additionally - someone please shut Teresa Heinz Kerry up. I'm serious. She obviously has no interest in her husband becoming president, and that's fine. But can we at least not unleash her on the press?

There are just too many impressionable swing voters out there who don't pay attention to politics and are looking for a completely meaningless issue to help them decide. Let's not let Teresa be their reason. For the record, I don't find anything she says objectionable. In fact, I rather like her. But that's not the point.

Kerry's new strategy

This is brilliant rhetoric:

Democrat John Kerry has taken to summarizing the presidential fight with a line that's both a dig at his opponent and an appeal to undecided voters. "A president," Kerry says, "has to be able to do more than one thing at the same time." The line is intended for voters with questions about President Bush's performance in office who still hesitate to back Kerry, adviser Mike McCurry said.

It jabs at the president's singular focus on terrorism and security as the only things at issue in the presidential campaign, he said.

"The argument is that the singular preoccupation with eradicating evildoing in the world ... it creates blinders that allow you to miss the other things that are important to the American people," McCurry said.

McCurry argues that Kerry can be a "president who can simultaneously conduct an aggressive war on terror but not drop the ball on jobs and health care."

Democrats repeatedly charge that the president ignored or mishandled the economy, education and health care. Kerry reminds voters at every turn that the economy lost jobs under Bush's watch and says more people lost their health care and slipped into poverty during his term.

Here's a good one for the Sunday talk shows...

Pat Robertson claims that Bush told him he didn't expect any casualties.

Why doesn't this surprise me...I mean, why would Bush expect casualties? Jesus himself leapt from the heavens and told Bush that the inspections must stop and Saddam Hussein must be removed from power.

We're within reach

It's close. We can win. Imagine the look on that son of a bitch's face when he loses...

Get out there and canvass the streets! Virginia is within 3 points. Bush is under 50 here, so we've got a shot. This could be the surprise of the year.

If you don't like canvassing, make some calls. Do something. Something boring, painful, and repetitive. That's what we need.

The October surprise?

Could the release of new Abu Ghraib pictures/evidence be the Democrats October surprise? Why not? It would certainly be bold. Of course, people might accuse Kerry of "another" sleazy trick. But who knows?
Andrew Sullivan wonders where the issue went:

THE MISSING ISSUE: It does strike me as astounding that in four debates lasting six hours, the horrors of Abu Ghraib were never mentioned. Remember when we were reeling from the images? They remain the most spectacular public relations debacle for this country at war since Vietnam. And we know the underlying reasons for the abuse and torture: the prison was drastically under-manned and incompetently managed, the Pentagon had given mixed signals on what constituted torture, the CPA had no idea that it might be dealing with an insurgency and was dragging in all sorts of innocents to extract intelligence in a ham-handed manner.

Oh, and I just checked with some insider sources, and Dick Cheney's daughter is still a lesbian.

Close race

Unless one candidate pulls ahead significantly, you can expect the media to push the neutral story line, "This race is close!" But they're right - it's close. Even if you see polls with Bush ahead by 4-6 points, you'd better believe that it's still very close. Here's why:

1. Newly registered voters are breaking heavily towards Kerry (whether they be young voters or hispanics)

2. The incumbent rule states that undecideds usually break 2-1 for the challenger.

3. The Democrats (or Dem-leaning groups) are spending twice as much money as the Republicans on their GOTV effort.

4. Assuming that Kerry solidifies states like Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin, this race will be fought out largely on Bush's 2000 turf.

The key states to look at over the next few weeks are Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Iowa. These are the true swing states.

update:
I'd like to add the following points to the list:
5. Howard Stern and Jon Stewart

6. George Bush's approval rating is down to 44% in the latest CBS News poll

7. Democrats will be invigorated and panicked by the fact that Bush is slightly ahead right now. They'll go canvass, make phone calls, and do everything they can to swing this election. Republicans aren't as excited about this election.

George Bush has one issue that's on his side:
Dick Cheney's daughter is a lesbian.